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Abstract
Industrial growth in Indonesia is accelerating along with product innovations that continue to develop, especially in the manufacturing sector. PT. Sadiyah Cahaya Metalam, located in Tegal, Central Java, is a manufacturer of Plate Stand Tread that faces competitive market competition. One of the company's main challenges is ensuring efficient inventory management, including managing the lead time for raw material orders, monitoring inventory, and cooperating with suppliers. The instability of raw material availability often affects the smooth production process, causes delays in product delivery to customers, and risks lowering the company's reputation and losing potential revenue. This study aims to analyze the most appropriate sales forecasting methods to anticipate market demand and support effective inventory management. Data is collected through direct observation of the production process, in-depth interviews with production and inventory managers, and literature studies to support the analysis. Three forecasting methods are applied, namely Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average, and Exponential Smoothing, to evaluate performance based on accuracy and efficiency. The results of the analysis show that the Weighted Moving Average method has the best performance with a Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) value of 5.096, a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 40.751, and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 5.725%. Based on this method, sales of Plate Stand Tread in January 2024 are projected to be 91 units. This method was chosen because it is able to provide the most accurate results in predicting market demand, thus helping companies avoid the risk of shortages or excess inventory. This research contributes to inventory management practices in the manufacturing sector by emphasizing the importance of selecting the right forecasting method to optimize the production process and maintain customer satisfaction. This finding is expected to be a reference for other companies in managing inventory more effectively.