Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
Abstract
Production forecasting is one of the efforts made by a company to produce in the next period. The general purpose of production forecasting is to meet consumer needs so that consumers feel satisfied because their needs are met. The problem faced by Pt Hijaz Textile Industry is in meeting consumer needs and in stockpiling sarong products. The meaning of this problem is that it is necessary to address forecasting issues at PT Hijaz Textile Industry, not only to meet consumer needs but also in product onventories that exceed the limit which causes strogae costs to increase. So, by carring out production forecasting, the aim is to predicat production for the next period so that consumers desires will certainly be met based on exisiting problems. The method used in this research is to use qm for windows software to forecast the next period. Where in qm for windows there is a module for forecasting, in this research a comparison of two times series methods was used, namely the moving average and exponential smoothing methods. Each method is given weigting values such as the exponential smoothing method using alpha parameters of 0.01ro 0.10. Where in the data error test using the mean absolute percentage error or mape, the results obtained after comparing the two methods showed that the smallest percentage value for each pattern of sarong was in the exponential smoothing method. With the sweet flower pattern using an alpha value of 0.09, the coletan flower pattern using an alpha value of 0.05, and the special flower pattern using an alpha value of 0.09, which produces production forecasting data for the next period, a number of 30453 sweet flower patterns, kembang coletan 9162 and special kembang 1183. The results of data processing for forecasting woven sarong production, it was found that the method used was the exponential smoothing method with value weigting the alpha parameters for each sarong pattern are different. An obtain forecasting results for the next period.